5 posts
The won firmed to 1,481, yet SK Hynix crashed 38% from its peak and broke the 1.85M-won line. The five new engines behind it (peak-out downgrades, a BOK rate hike, CXMT's IPO, New York's data-center moratorium, ADR flowback) plus a fact-check of the scenarios from two weeks ago.
SanDisk fell 11% the day Bernstein raised its target to $3,000. The four reasons good news became a sell signal, an 850% surge at a 77x P/E, Hynix-ADR premium erosion, and the WD overhang, plus the downside scenarios.
Foreigners dumped 150 trillion won on the KOSPI in H1 as the won hit 1,540. Why do SK Hynix and Samsung, the most-held and most-appreciated names, crack first? The feedback loop, the ADR myth vs. reality, the 4,700T capex weight, and the downside scenarios.
The M7, semis, the KOSPI, even SK Hynix that we called the new boss all fell together. This is not rotation, it is a cash grab. The mechanics of a deleveraging driven by rate fears, a cracked AI narrative, forced selling, and geopolitics, and whether the power-reversal thesis is dead.
AI-grade HBM swallowed commodity DRAM and flipped pricing power for the first time in 30 years. The past, present, and future of the reversal, Big Tech's chipflation, and the 2028 to 2030 signals for when cost power flips back.